Marian apparitions have a very low rate of being officially approved by the various Christian groups that do that. Even ignoring Occam’s Razor and considering only a person who already believes Marian doctines, that should give the apparitions very low prior probability estimates. There are putative Marian apparitions with good evidence for something unusual happening, such as Fatima’s “Miracle of the Sun”, but the evidence seems to be completely independent of Christian belief.
UFO sightings that I’ve read about always have dramatically simpler explanations than “that’s an alien craft defying our known physics”. I tried investigating UFO sightings by the same standards used for Marian apparitions, and it was roughly a wash.
Upvoted for seeking a tiebreaker among tiebreaking heuristics.
Any conclusions you care to share?
Marian apparitions have a very low rate of being officially approved by the various Christian groups that do that. Even ignoring Occam’s Razor and considering only a person who already believes Marian doctines, that should give the apparitions very low prior probability estimates. There are putative Marian apparitions with good evidence for something unusual happening, such as Fatima’s “Miracle of the Sun”, but the evidence seems to be completely independent of Christian belief.
UFO sightings that I’ve read about always have dramatically simpler explanations than “that’s an alien craft defying our known physics”. I tried investigating UFO sightings by the same standards used for Marian apparitions, and it was roughly a wash.