The likelihood of a hypothesis is proportional to the expected net utility of the agent believing it.
I’m sure there’s some way to translate that into expected return from betting on it.
Pascal’s Goldpan is an interesting idea. However, it produces all kinds of problems. Over which time period are we defining utility? Surely most pieces of knowledge would have either no effect on utility, regardless of truth, or wildly unpredictable effects, and in some cases negative effects. I don’t think it’s useful.
Knowledge needs to constrain expectations. Usefulness is a helpful test of whether it does that, but doesn’t work as a general definition.
I’m sure there’s some way to translate that into expected return from betting on it.
Pascal’s Goldpan is an interesting idea. However, it produces all kinds of problems. Over which time period are we defining utility? Surely most pieces of knowledge would have either no effect on utility, regardless of truth, or wildly unpredictable effects, and in some cases negative effects. I don’t think it’s useful.
Knowledge needs to constrain expectations. Usefulness is a helpful test of whether it does that, but doesn’t work as a general definition.
Kudos for originality, though.