I have some market noob questions — please feel free to point me to existing documentation if that’s more efficient.
How do you get the 68k liquidity from the Nate Silver question? Is it a multiple of the volume, for example?
I’m still unclear on the relationships between Briar score, resolution, and payout… there’s probably also a fourth thing here that has a name but I’m not sure what it’s called. Maybe “bet form.” I see on metaculus I can sometimes bet a number and other times a distribution. It seems like polymarket “merges” this by letting you bet several points (3-5) on a distribution in non-Boolean cases. First, is that a correct way to think about it?
Then, once it’s resolve how is the “correct” distribution assigned to a prediction? Meaning, if I bet high or low relative to a point, how does the realized outcome determine how close or far away I was? Does it assume a normal distribution with some values from the outcome, for example?
Take the “Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by …?” Question. Let’s pretend (this is entirely hypothetical!!!) that I know there’s a Bond villain with a new variant that he can air drop over larger cities in the US on January 25th. But if James Bond stops him,, the villain’s airdrop won’t occur. The probability of Bond succeeding is 10%. So, I know there should be more of a peak near February 1st in a “true” probability distribution. But, if Bond succeeds, then everything looks more normal…. That’s probably a long way of asking, but I’m assuming Briar scores can’t account for scenarios like these. Like it would “punish” you in this circumstance?
Then, more straightforwardly, how to you go from Brair score to amount won or lost for a given bet?
I have some market noob questions — please feel free to point me to existing documentation if that’s more efficient.
How do you get the 68k liquidity from the Nate Silver question? Is it a multiple of the volume, for example?
I’m still unclear on the relationships between Briar score, resolution, and payout… there’s probably also a fourth thing here that has a name but I’m not sure what it’s called. Maybe “bet form.” I see on metaculus I can sometimes bet a number and other times a distribution. It seems like polymarket “merges” this by letting you bet several points (3-5) on a distribution in non-Boolean cases. First, is that a correct way to think about it?
Then, once it’s resolve how is the “correct” distribution assigned to a prediction? Meaning, if I bet high or low relative to a point, how does the realized outcome determine how close or far away I was? Does it assume a normal distribution with some values from the outcome, for example?
Take the “Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by …?” Question. Let’s pretend (this is entirely hypothetical!!!) that I know there’s a Bond villain with a new variant that he can air drop over larger cities in the US on January 25th. But if James Bond stops him,, the villain’s airdrop won’t occur. The probability of Bond succeeding is 10%. So, I know there should be more of a peak near February 1st in a “true” probability distribution. But, if Bond succeeds, then everything looks more normal…. That’s probably a long way of asking, but I’m assuming Briar scores can’t account for scenarios like these. Like it would “punish” you in this circumstance?
Then, more straightforwardly, how to you go from Brair score to amount won or lost for a given bet?