(Datapoint on initial perception: at the time, I had glanced at the post, but didn’t vote or comment, because I thought Steven was in the right in the precipitating discussion and the “a prediction can assign less probability-mass to the actual outcome than another but still be better” position seemed either confused or confusingly phrased to me; I would say that a good model can make a bad prediction about a particular event, but the model still has to take a hit.)
(Datapoint on initial perception: at the time, I had glanced at the post, but didn’t vote or comment, because I thought Steven was in the right in the precipitating discussion and the “a prediction can assign less probability-mass to the actual outcome than another but still be better” position seemed either confused or confusingly phrased to me; I would say that a good model can make a bad prediction about a particular event, but the model still has to take a hit.)