So… Longtime lurker, made an account to comment, etc.
I have a few questions.
First two, about innate status sense:
* I’m not convinced this it exists; is there a particular experiment (thought or otherwise) that could clearly demonstrate the existence of innate status sense among people? Presuming I don’t have it, and I have several willing, honest, introspective, non-rationalist, average adults, what could I ask them?
* Is there a particular thought experiment I could perform that discriminates cleanly between worlds in which I have it and worlds in which I don’t?
Next, about increasing probability estimates of unlikely events based on the outside view:
* This post argues against “Probing the Improbable” and for “Pascal’s Muggle: Infinitesimal …”; having skimmed the former and read the latter, I’m not clearly seeing the difference. Both seem to suggest that after using a model, implicitly or explicitly, to assign a low probability to an event, it is important to note the possibility that the model is catastrophically wrong and factor that into your instrumental probability.
So… Longtime lurker, made an account to comment, etc.
I have a few questions.
First two, about innate status sense:
* I’m not convinced this it exists; is there a particular experiment (thought or otherwise) that could clearly demonstrate the existence of innate status sense among people? Presuming I don’t have it, and I have several willing, honest, introspective, non-rationalist, average adults, what could I ask them?
* Is there a particular thought experiment I could perform that discriminates cleanly between worlds in which I have it and worlds in which I don’t?
Next, about increasing probability estimates of unlikely events based on the outside view:
* This post argues against “Probing the Improbable” and for “Pascal’s Muggle: Infinitesimal …”; having skimmed the former and read the latter, I’m not clearly seeing the difference. Both seem to suggest that after using a model, implicitly or explicitly, to assign a low probability to an event, it is important to note the possibility that the model is catastrophically wrong and factor that into your instrumental probability.