Is Pat poorly calibrated though? I don’t think he is. I don’t see anything in the text to suggest otherwise. If you’re going to criticize Pat’s decision process, I would hope the first argument to be “It doesn’t work well”. If it does, in fact, work, then maybe you’re the one with flawed reasoning.
The arguments why Aumann’s agreement theorem doesn’t apply need a lot more work. It’s a pretty big claim.
The whole “hero license” thing is indeed ad hominem. Pat is not demanding to see your hero license, Pat is predicting your future performance based on past performance.
It’s weird to agree so much with a straw man that you wrote yourself. I’m willing to assume that I’m missing the point completely, and I’d be happy if someone could clear it up for me.
Is Pat poorly calibrated though? I don’t think he is. I don’t see anything in the text to suggest otherwise. If you’re going to criticize Pat’s decision process, I would hope the first argument to be “It doesn’t work well”. If it does, in fact, work, then maybe you’re the one with flawed reasoning.
The arguments why Aumann’s agreement theorem doesn’t apply need a lot more work. It’s a pretty big claim.
The whole “hero license” thing is indeed ad hominem. Pat is not demanding to see your hero license, Pat is predicting your future performance based on past performance.
It’s weird to agree so much with a straw man that you wrote yourself. I’m willing to assume that I’m missing the point completely, and I’d be happy if someone could clear it up for me.