Indeed, I agree with you 100% that EY could have convinced Pat to raise his probability if he had used better arguments (though 10% might still be a bit too high). But some things about your comment are weird to me. Why do you say “dispatch” instead of “reach agreement”? Why say “[EY is] being too nice” instead of “EY is defending his point poorly”? From my point of view, Pat is being reasonable and is merely missing some information that EY is failing to provide. From EY’s point of view, Pat is doing something fundamentally wrong. Your comment is defending my point with its content, but it’s phrased as though it defended EY’s.
Indeed, I agree with you 100% that EY could have convinced Pat to raise his probability if he had used better arguments (though 10% might still be a bit too high). But some things about your comment are weird to me. Why do you say “dispatch” instead of “reach agreement”? Why say “[EY is] being too nice” instead of “EY is defending his point poorly”? From my point of view, Pat is being reasonable and is merely missing some information that EY is failing to provide. From EY’s point of view, Pat is doing something fundamentally wrong. Your comment is defending my point with its content, but it’s phrased as though it defended EY’s.