I started with random.org giving me a number, 1 or 0. I decided to guess “left” if random.org returned 1 and “right” if random.org returned 0. On this particular occasion, random.org returned 1 and my method was successful.
Without other examples of Holmesian reasoning, it is not immediately obvious to myself that Holmesian reasoning is more successful than coin-flipping, although it is probably more time-intensive.
I started with random.org giving me a number, 1 or 0. I decided to guess “left” if random.org returned 1 and “right” if random.org returned 0. On this particular occasion, random.org returned 1 and my method was successful.
Without other examples of Holmesian reasoning, it is not immediately obvious to myself that Holmesian reasoning is more successful than coin-flipping, although it is probably more time-intensive.