The society given in the example is wrong. But that’s not exactly the same as being irrational, I do think however that its probable to say that person A is more rational than the society as a whole. This may be a high or low standard mind you.
Now again I dislike the highly charged example, since they narrow down the scope of thinking, but I suppose you do make a vivid case.
is rationality are themselves irrational.
But how can they know this? If they know this why don’t they change? All else being equal an individual being mistaken seem more likley than the societal consensus being wrong. I don’t think you realize on just how much human societies agree. Also just because society is wrong, dosen’t mean the individual is right.
Are you better off associated with the fake Nazi or the sincere Nazi?
The answer for the typical person living in Nazi Germany would be? Mind you a Nazi Germany where we don’t have the benefit of hindsight that the regime will be short lived.
But how can they know this? If they know this why don’t they change?
They don’t change because their beliefs are politically convenient. Because their beliefs justify the elite exercising power over the less elite. Because their beliefs justify behavior by the elite that serves the interests of members of the elite but destroys society.
Searching for an example of suicidal delusions that is not unduly relevant to either today’s politics or yesterdays demons—unfortunately, such examples are necessarily obscure.
The nineteenth century British belief in benevolent enlightened imperialism justified a transfer of power and wealth from the unenlightened and piratical colonialists, to members of the British establishment more closely associated with the government, the elite and the better schools. Lots of people predicted this ideology would wind up having the consequences that it did have, that the pirates actually governed better, but were, of course, ignored.
Now again I dislike the highly charged example, since they narrow down the scope of thinking, but I suppose you do make a vivid case.
If I reference beliefs in our society that might cause harmful effects were they not so wise and enlightened, it also makes vivid case. Indeed, any reference to strikingly harmful effects makes a vivid case.
The answer for the typical person living in Nazi Germany would be? Mind you a Nazi Germany where we don’t have the benefit of hindsight that the regime will be short lived.
But some people did have the foresight that the regime was going to be short lived, at least towards the end. Nazi strategy was explained in Hitler’s widely read book. The plan was to destroy France (done), force a quick peace settlement with the anglophones (failed), and then invade and ethnically cleanse a large part of Russia. The plan was for short wars against a small set of enemies at any one time. When the British sank the Bismark, the plan was in trouble, since Anglophone air and sea superiority made it unlikely that Germany could force a quick peace, or force them to do anything they did not feel like doing, nor force them to refrain from doing anything they might feel like doing. When they sank the Bismark in May 1941, it was apparent that anglophones could reach Germany, and Germany could not effectively reach them. At that point all type A’s should have suspected that Germany had lost the war. At Stalingrad, the plan sank without a trace, and every type A must have known that the war was lost.
In general, a type A will predict the future better than a type B, since false beliefs lead society to unforseen consequences.
The society given in the example is wrong. But that’s not exactly the same as being irrational, I do think however that its probable to say that person A is more rational than the society as a whole. This may be a high or low standard mind you.
Now again I dislike the highly charged example, since they narrow down the scope of thinking, but I suppose you do make a vivid case.
But how can they know this? If they know this why don’t they change? All else being equal an individual being mistaken seem more likley than the societal consensus being wrong. I don’t think you realize on just how much human societies agree. Also just because society is wrong, dosen’t mean the individual is right.
The answer for the typical person living in Nazi Germany would be? Mind you a Nazi Germany where we don’t have the benefit of hindsight that the regime will be short lived.
They don’t change because their beliefs are politically convenient. Because their beliefs justify the elite exercising power over the less elite. Because their beliefs justify behavior by the elite that serves the interests of members of the elite but destroys society.
Searching for an example of suicidal delusions that is not unduly relevant to either today’s politics or yesterdays demons—unfortunately, such examples are necessarily obscure.
The nineteenth century British belief in benevolent enlightened imperialism justified a transfer of power and wealth from the unenlightened and piratical colonialists, to members of the British establishment more closely associated with the government, the elite and the better schools. Lots of people predicted this ideology would wind up having the consequences that it did have, that the pirates actually governed better, but were, of course, ignored.
If I reference beliefs in our society that might cause harmful effects were they not so wise and enlightened, it also makes vivid case. Indeed, any reference to strikingly harmful effects makes a vivid case.
But some people did have the foresight that the regime was going to be short lived, at least towards the end. Nazi strategy was explained in Hitler’s widely read book. The plan was to destroy France (done), force a quick peace settlement with the anglophones (failed), and then invade and ethnically cleanse a large part of Russia. The plan was for short wars against a small set of enemies at any one time. When the British sank the Bismark, the plan was in trouble, since Anglophone air and sea superiority made it unlikely that Germany could force a quick peace, or force them to do anything they did not feel like doing, nor force them to refrain from doing anything they might feel like doing. When they sank the Bismark in May 1941, it was apparent that anglophones could reach Germany, and Germany could not effectively reach them. At that point all type A’s should have suspected that Germany had lost the war. At Stalingrad, the plan sank without a trace, and every type A must have known that the war was lost.
In general, a type A will predict the future better than a type B, since false beliefs lead society to unforseen consequences.