That bit at the end about “time horizon of our average baseliner” is a little confusing to me, but I understand it to mean “if we used the 50% reliability metric on the humans we had do these tasks, our model would say humans can’t reliably perform tasks that take longer than an hour”. Which is a pretty interesting point.
That’s basically correct. To give a little more context for why we don’t really believe this number, during data collection we were not really trying to measure the human success rate, just get successful human runs and measure their time. It was very common for baseliners to realize that finishing the task would take too long, give up, and try to collect speed bonuses on other tasks. This is somewhat concerning for biasing the human time-to-complete estimates, but much more concerning for this human time horizon measurement. So we don’t claim the human time horizon as a result.
That’s basically correct. To give a little more context for why we don’t really believe this number, during data collection we were not really trying to measure the human success rate, just get successful human runs and measure their time. It was very common for baseliners to realize that finishing the task would take too long, give up, and try to collect speed bonuses on other tasks. This is somewhat concerning for biasing the human time-to-complete estimates, but much more concerning for this human time horizon measurement. So we don’t claim the human time horizon as a result.