I basically agree with this. The reason the paper didn’t include this kind of reasoning (only a paragraph about how AGI will have infinite horizon length) is we felt that making a forecast based on a superexponential trend would be too much speculation for an academic paper. (There is really no way to make one without heavy reliance on priors; does it speed up by 10% per doubling or 20%?) It wasn’t necessary given the 2027 and 2029-2030 dates for 1-month AI derived from extrapolation already roughly bracketed our uncertainty.
I basically agree with this. The reason the paper didn’t include this kind of reasoning (only a paragraph about how AGI will have infinite horizon length) is we felt that making a forecast based on a superexponential trend would be too much speculation for an academic paper. (There is really no way to make one without heavy reliance on priors; does it speed up by 10% per doubling or 20%?) It wasn’t necessary given the 2027 and 2029-2030 dates for 1-month AI derived from extrapolation already roughly bracketed our uncertainty.