Regarding AGI race dynamics—I wonder if there’s an intuition pump for ‘time vs competitor’ preference?
For example, to me, based on my current knowledge, I think Anthropic reaching RSI before the next best company (Deepmind, maybe?) is worth about two years of time. (I.e. I estimate equal safety-relevant outcomes from Claude hitting RSI in 2027 as from Gemini hitting RSI in 2029).
That’s a super weird framework, and I just made up that two years number, but I think maybe helps me reason through preferences.
The neat thing about the framework is that it’s p(doom) agnostic. It’s about relative performance between AGI projects and expectations for how much safety work will reduce it in the near future, absolute numbers not needed.
It also lets you give clear, recordable, updatable beliefs. So, spitballing:
Anthropic—Leader
Deepmind -- +2 years for equal safety
OpenAI -- +2.5 years
SSI -- +2.5 years
Deepseek -- +3 years
Zai -- +4 years
Xai -- +5 years
Alibaba -- +5 years
Meta -- +6 years
Again I want to stress these are vibes, not a considered opinion. I expect to change my mind quickly once challenged with evidence my guesses are wrong.
Regarding AGI race dynamics—I wonder if there’s an intuition pump for ‘time vs competitor’ preference?
For example, to me, based on my current knowledge, I think Anthropic reaching RSI before the next best company (Deepmind, maybe?) is worth about two years of time. (I.e. I estimate equal safety-relevant outcomes from Claude hitting RSI in 2027 as from Gemini hitting RSI in 2029).
That’s a super weird framework, and I just made up that two years number, but I think maybe helps me reason through preferences.
The neat thing about the framework is that it’s p(doom) agnostic. It’s about relative performance between AGI projects and expectations for how much safety work will reduce it in the near future, absolute numbers not needed.
It also lets you give clear, recordable, updatable beliefs. So, spitballing:
Anthropic—Leader
Deepmind -- +2 years for equal safety
OpenAI -- +2.5 years
SSI -- +2.5 years
Deepseek -- +3 years
Zai -- +4 years
Xai -- +5 years
Alibaba -- +5 years
Meta -- +6 years
Again I want to stress these are vibes, not a considered opinion. I expect to change my mind quickly once challenged with evidence my guesses are wrong.