Other than giving organizations/individuals $1T, which gets into the range of actions like “buy NVIDIA”, IMO the only genuinely relevant thing here is “ Achieve widespread agreement[4] on AI risk, by 2025”.
All our time pressure problems are downstream of this not being true, and 90% of our problems are time pressure problems.
The valur of “key personalities” stuff is just an instrumental step towards the former, unless we are talking about every key personality that sets organizational priorities for every competitive company/government in the West and China.
Re the difference between persuading people that “AI risk is real” and “doom is more likely than not”, I do not think they are practically very different. The level of societal investment we’d get from A is roughly the same as from B, if people genuinely believed it.
Lastly, the total # of talented young folks we’re trying to persuade obviously matters, but unless it’s something like a monopoly, we still have the same time pressure problems. I’d guess it’s useful on the margin (especially for persuading other social actors) but I would take political consensus over this any day of the week.
Other than giving organizations/individuals $1T, which gets into the range of actions like “buy NVIDIA”, IMO the only genuinely relevant thing here is “ Achieve widespread agreement[4] on AI risk, by 2025”. All our time pressure problems are downstream of this not being true, and 90% of our problems are time pressure problems. The valur of “key personalities” stuff is just an instrumental step towards the former, unless we are talking about every key personality that sets organizational priorities for every competitive company/government in the West and China.
Re the difference between persuading people that “AI risk is real” and “doom is more likely than not”, I do not think they are practically very different. The level of societal investment we’d get from A is roughly the same as from B, if people genuinely believed it. Lastly, the total # of talented young folks we’re trying to persuade obviously matters, but unless it’s something like a monopoly, we still have the same time pressure problems. I’d guess it’s useful on the margin (especially for persuading other social actors) but I would take political consensus over this any day of the week.