Forecasting in a domain that includes human psychology, society-level propagation of beliefs, development of entirely new technology, and understanding how a variety of minds work in enough detail to predict not only what they’ll do but how they’ll change—that’s really hard.
So, should we give up, and just prepare for any scenario? I don’t think so. I think we should try harder.
That involves spending more individual time on it, and doing more collaborative prediction with people of different perspectives and different areas of expertise.
On the object level: I think it’s pretty easy to predict now that we’ll have more ChatGPT moments, and the Overton window will shift farther. In particular, I think interacting with a somewhat competent agent with self-awareness will be an emotionally resonant experience for most people who haven’t previously imagined in detail that such a thing might exist soon.
Forecasting is hard.
Forecasting in a domain that includes human psychology, society-level propagation of beliefs, development of entirely new technology, and understanding how a variety of minds work in enough detail to predict not only what they’ll do but how they’ll change—that’s really hard.
So, should we give up, and just prepare for any scenario? I don’t think so. I think we should try harder.
That involves spending more individual time on it, and doing more collaborative prediction with people of different perspectives and different areas of expertise.
On the object level: I think it’s pretty easy to predict now that we’ll have more ChatGPT moments, and the Overton window will shift farther. In particular, I think interacting with a somewhat competent agent with self-awareness will be an emotionally resonant experience for most people who haven’t previously imagined in detail that such a thing might exist soon.