I always feel like I’m reading your response to some other argument, but you decide to use some indirect reference or straw-man instead of actually addressing the impetus for your posts. This article is a long way of saying that even when things aren’t black and white, that doesn’t mean shades of grey don’t matter.
Also, I think people often reach for analogies as though they always provide clarification when sometimes they just muddle things. I have no idea what to make of your disappearing moon example. The odds that the entire moon could disappear and reappear seem very hard to compare to the odds that there’s an invisible dragon that can cure cancer. Why not compare something highly probable with the cancer curing dragon instead of something so strangely contrived? You can’t prove Big Ben will ring tomorrow, but the odds are much better than an invisible dragon baking you a cake!
I always feel like I’m reading your response to some other argument, but you decide to use some indirect reference or straw-man instead of actually addressing the impetus for your posts. This article is a long way of saying that even when things aren’t black and white, that doesn’t mean shades of grey don’t matter.
Also, I think people often reach for analogies as though they always provide clarification when sometimes they just muddle things. I have no idea what to make of your disappearing moon example. The odds that the entire moon could disappear and reappear seem very hard to compare to the odds that there’s an invisible dragon that can cure cancer. Why not compare something highly probable with the cancer curing dragon instead of something so strangely contrived? You can’t prove Big Ben will ring tomorrow, but the odds are much better than an invisible dragon baking you a cake!