But let’s really look at the statement “The future will be like the past because in the past the future was like the past.”
If by “like the past,” do we mean obey the same physical laws?
If we do, then I think what we’re trying to estimate is the chance, over a specified time frame, that the physical laws will change.
The problem then reduces to the problem of drawing red and blue marbles out of a hat. We can look at all the available time frames that we have “drawn” up to this point and get a confidence estimate on how likely it is that the physical laws will change over the next “draw” of the time frame
But let’s really look at the statement “The future will be like the past because in the past the future was like the past.”
If by “like the past,” do we mean obey the same physical laws?
If we do, then I think what we’re trying to estimate is the chance, over a specified time frame, that the physical laws will change.
The problem then reduces to the problem of drawing red and blue marbles out of a hat. We can look at all the available time frames that we have “drawn” up to this point and get a confidence estimate on how likely it is that the physical laws will change over the next “draw” of the time frame