basil.halperin comments on AIs can now often do massive easy-to-verify SWE tasks and I’ve updated towards shorter timelines

[basil.halperin]

The things that could be achieved in 2 years with current compute are achieved faster, but the things that could be achieved in 15 years won’t happen meaningfully faster

If you haven’t seen Tom Cunningham’s new blog post on what I think is a very related thesis, you may be interested