I have tried calibration testing myself on stuff not about me or people I know.
I’ve noticed that after a bit of practice, checking my curve every ten questions or so, I get quite accurate.
When I take a break of a few months and try again, I notice that my curve has wandered and looks more like your curve for personal predictions. A bit of practice gets me back to accurately calibrated.
I’ve repeated this process a few times and feel like the amount of wander-off-calibrated send similar each time, even with varying length intervals (few months vs years).
I wonder if the calibration would be stickier if I practiced longer/harder at it? Why am I consistently worse around 40⁄60 than around 70⁄30, 80⁄20, 90/10?
What would a typical calibration curve look like for different age elementary school kids? Would their calibrations throughout life be better if they were taught this and rehearsed it every few months through 3rd to 5th grade?
I have tried calibration testing myself on stuff not about me or people I know. I’ve noticed that after a bit of practice, checking my curve every ten questions or so, I get quite accurate. When I take a break of a few months and try again, I notice that my curve has wandered and looks more like your curve for personal predictions. A bit of practice gets me back to accurately calibrated. I’ve repeated this process a few times and feel like the amount of wander-off-calibrated send similar each time, even with varying length intervals (few months vs years). I wonder if the calibration would be stickier if I practiced longer/harder at it? Why am I consistently worse around 40⁄60 than around 70⁄30, 80⁄20, 90/10? What would a typical calibration curve look like for different age elementary school kids? Would their calibrations throughout life be better if they were taught this and rehearsed it every few months through 3rd to 5th grade?