Certainly the track record is disappointing compared to what’s possible, and what seems like it ought to be reasonable. And the track record shows that even pretty obvious mistakes are common. And I imagine that success probability falls off worryingly quickly as success requires more foresight and allows for less trial and error. (Fwiw, I think all this is compatible with “humans trying to prevent bad events very often prevents bad events”, when quantifying over a very broad range of possible events.)
Certainly the track record is disappointing compared to what’s possible, and what seems like it ought to be reasonable. And the track record shows that even pretty obvious mistakes are common. And I imagine that success probability falls off worryingly quickly as success requires more foresight and allows for less trial and error. (Fwiw, I think all this is compatible with “humans trying to prevent bad events very often prevents bad events”, when quantifying over a very broad range of possible events.)