we’re more surprised when we see the former than the latter
I don’t think this is actually true. If MileyCyrus successfully predicted the exact sequence of coinflips HTHTTHTHTTTHHTH, wouldn’t you be more surprised than if it were HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH?
Of course. When I said “we’re more surprised” I was referring to the typical person who hasn’t read this discussion thread. In the absence of the above prediction, I would be far more surprised to see HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH than HTHTTHTHTTTHHTH. Once the prediction is made, I become extremely surprised if either sequence appears, but somewhat more surprised by HTHTTHTHTTTHHTH.
Oh, I see. In the case of the typical person, the answer is even easier: Lack of understanding of the conjunction rule of probability. HTHTTHTHTTTHHTH feels more representative of a random series of coin flips, so it is intuitively judged as more probable than HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.
This is true, but doesn’t explain why we’re more surprised when we see the former than the latter.
I don’t think this is actually true. If MileyCyrus successfully predicted the exact sequence of coinflips HTHTTHTHTTTHHTH, wouldn’t you be more surprised than if it were HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH?
Of course. When I said “we’re more surprised” I was referring to the typical person who hasn’t read this discussion thread. In the absence of the above prediction, I would be far more surprised to see HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH than HTHTTHTHTTTHHTH. Once the prediction is made, I become extremely surprised if either sequence appears, but somewhat more surprised by HTHTTHTHTTTHHTH.
Oh, I see. In the case of the typical person, the answer is even easier: Lack of understanding of the conjunction rule of probability. HTHTTHTHTTTHHTH feels more representative of a random series of coin flips, so it is intuitively judged as more probable than HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.