For short term predictions, especially about geopolitical events, the sorts of things that people are gambling about on Polymarket, the heuristic “nothing ever happens” is pretty good.
You can also profit from things like earnings calls of popular public companies by buying condor or butterfly option strategies that profit from the stock price staying still or moving way less than implied volatility (not financial advice)
You can also profit from things like earnings calls of popular public companies by buying condor or butterfly option strategies that profit from the stock price staying still or moving way less than implied volatility (not financial advice)