I believe Iran is definitely going to trie develop nuclear weapons as soon as they regain the capability to do so; I think it’s inevitable. Iran was already in a relatively stable equilibrium with Israel and the US by remaining at the threshold of nuclear weapons development, without actually possessing them (because that would provoke an all-out war), but with enough fissile material to build them in months or weeks if necessary (which is why Netanyahu has been claiming for over a decade that they are “weeks” away from having a bomb).
With this war, there is no viable way for them to return to the previous status quo. By assassinating the previous “moderate” government leadership and destroying a large part of Iran’s conventional military capabilities, the clear message the United States and Israel have sent to the most radical sectors of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (who have now taken control of Iran) is that remaining a threshold state does not guarantee them any kind of security.
I believe Iran is definitely going to trie develop nuclear weapons as soon as they regain the capability to do so; I think it’s inevitable. Iran was already in a relatively stable equilibrium with Israel and the US by remaining at the threshold of nuclear weapons development, without actually possessing them (because that would provoke an all-out war), but with enough fissile material to build them in months or weeks if necessary (which is why Netanyahu has been claiming for over a decade that they are “weeks” away from having a bomb).
With this war, there is no viable way for them to return to the previous status quo. By assassinating the previous “moderate” government leadership and destroying a large part of Iran’s conventional military capabilities, the clear message the United States and Israel have sent to the most radical sectors of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (who have now taken control of Iran) is that remaining a threshold state does not guarantee them any kind of security.