With software-only singularity, at some point the feasible takeoff speed (as opposed to the actual takeoff speed) might stop depending on initial conditions. If there is enough compute to plot AI-built industry (that sidesteps human industry) faster than it’s being constructed in the physical world, then additional initial OOMs of human-built compute won’t be making any difference. Since humans are still so much more efficient (individually) at learning than LLMs (and a software-only singularity, whenever it happens, will bridge that gap and then some, as well as bring AI advantages to bear), we might reach that point soon, maybe by ~2030.
With software-only singularity, at some point the feasible takeoff speed (as opposed to the actual takeoff speed) might stop depending on initial conditions. If there is enough compute to plot AI-built industry (that sidesteps human industry) faster than it’s being constructed in the physical world, then additional initial OOMs of human-built compute won’t be making any difference. Since humans are still so much more efficient (individually) at learning than LLMs (and a software-only singularity, whenever it happens, will bridge that gap and then some, as well as bring AI advantages to bear), we might reach that point soon, maybe by ~2030.