I roughly agree with that timeline, although I also emphasize the range over a point estimate; we need to be prepared for shorter as well as longer timelines, since there are so many ways to get faster as well as slower advances than we’d expect.
One factor in my estimates after EAG is the practical difficulties of scripting for agents. It is reportedly even more frustrating to “debug” a sequence of prompts and model calls that malfunctions stochastically. I do expect automated processes similar to software improving its error-handling and debugging, but all of this will take time.
I also wonder what your definition of “AGI” is; that’s often a deciding factor in timelines, since people mean so many different things. My definition is “can reason about anything, which requires nontrivial continuous learning”, which I take to be the original definition; that in turn requires some amount of autonomy for self-directed learning. See “Real AGI”. But there are lots of other definitions in play now too, and I don’t remember what yours is.
I roughly agree with that timeline, although I also emphasize the range over a point estimate; we need to be prepared for shorter as well as longer timelines, since there are so many ways to get faster as well as slower advances than we’d expect.
One factor in my estimates after EAG is the practical difficulties of scripting for agents. It is reportedly even more frustrating to “debug” a sequence of prompts and model calls that malfunctions stochastically. I do expect automated processes similar to software improving its error-handling and debugging, but all of this will take time.
I also wonder what your definition of “AGI” is; that’s often a deciding factor in timelines, since people mean so many different things. My definition is “can reason about anything, which requires nontrivial continuous learning”, which I take to be the original definition; that in turn requires some amount of autonomy for self-directed learning. See “Real AGI”. But there are lots of other definitions in play now too, and I don’t remember what yours is.