I think the most fragile part of this scenario is replacement of IT/electronics with space colonization, because progress in electronics is arguably the reason for current space progress. It’s much harder to manage Starship with 70s electronics. Modern electronics got in modern state because it is profitable to create enormous consumer electronics industry and only under enormous scaling it is profitable.
I can imagine that bifurcation in tech is not about shift from electronics to space, but about changing culture around it. I see something like modern Japanese attitude, where software jobs are low-status, therefore everybody goes into space instead of SaaS.
I think the most fragile part of this scenario is replacement of IT/electronics with space colonization, because progress in electronics is arguably the reason for current space progress. It’s much harder to manage Starship with 70s electronics. Modern electronics got in modern state because it is profitable to create enormous consumer electronics industry and only under enormous scaling it is profitable.
I can imagine that bifurcation in tech is not about shift from electronics to space, but about changing culture around it. I see something like modern Japanese attitude, where software jobs are low-status, therefore everybody goes into space instead of SaaS.