Most of those signs are Anthropic specific, and OpenAI has several signs pointing in the opposite direction. They have really been leaning into a message of “efficient frontier AI for everyone”, they reset rate limits multiple times per month as a meme, and Codex rate limits are already very generous.
Anecdotally I’ve never heard of anyone hitting a Codex rate limit on a Max plan, and from what I hear most people struggle to hit 20% of their weekly rate limit with heavy usage.
I think the warrant here is ‘Anthropic will likely have the best AIs in December,’ which is why he’s looking at the Anthropic-specific signs.
(I’m unsure if this will be true; reasoning models looked like a big leap, similar to mythos, and they just turned out to be ubiquitous a few months after the reveal.)
Edit: another possible warrant is ‘OAI could have the best models in December, if they develop something mythos-class, which will be much more expensive to run and force them into a similar pricing position to Ant.’
Most of those signs are Anthropic specific, and OpenAI has several signs pointing in the opposite direction. They have really been leaning into a message of “efficient frontier AI for everyone”, they reset rate limits multiple times per month as a meme, and Codex rate limits are already very generous.
Anecdotally I’ve never heard of anyone hitting a Codex rate limit on a Max plan, and from what I hear most people struggle to hit 20% of their weekly rate limit with heavy usage.
“If you want the best AIs in December…”
I think the warrant here is ‘Anthropic will likely have the best AIs in December,’ which is why he’s looking at the Anthropic-specific signs.
(I’m unsure if this will be true; reasoning models looked like a big leap, similar to mythos, and they just turned out to be ubiquitous a few months after the reveal.)
Edit: another possible warrant is ‘OAI could have the best models in December, if they develop something mythos-class, which will be much more expensive to run and force them into a similar pricing position to Ant.’