Thanks for laying that all out. It’s more helpful info out of PredictIt. Unfortunately it doesn’t appear to point to a trend about whether a more progressive/leftist candidate, or moderate/centrist candidate, would be likelier to win. If I had to guess, I’d say Biden and Harris are more moderate candidates...? But that’s not based on much, and like you said the range on all those estimates is still huge.
Thanks for laying that all out. It’s more helpful info out of PredictIt. Unfortunately it doesn’t appear to point to a trend about whether a more progressive/leftist candidate, or moderate/centrist candidate, would be likelier to win. If I had to guess, I’d say Biden and Harris are more moderate candidates...? But that’s not based on much, and like you said the range on all those estimates is still huge.