As of 20 Oct 2022, I am 50% confident that the U.S. Supreme Court will rely on its holding in Bruen to hold that the ban on new manufacture of automatic weapons is unconstitutional.
Conditional on such a holding, I am 98% confident it will be a 5-4 decision.
I am 80% confident that SCOTUS will do the same re suppressor statutes, no opinion on the vote.
The SBR registration statute is a bit different because it’s possible that 14th Amendment-era laws addressed short-barreled firearms. I just don’t know.
Self-calibration memo:
As of 20 Oct 2022, I am 50% confident that the U.S. Supreme Court will rely on its holding in Bruen to hold that the ban on new manufacture of automatic weapons is unconstitutional.
Conditional on such a holding, I am 98% confident it will be a 5-4 decision.
I am 80% confident that SCOTUS will do the same re suppressor statutes, no opinion on the vote.
The SBR registration statute is a bit different because it’s possible that 14th Amendment-era laws addressed short-barreled firearms. I just don’t know.