Subsequent evidence suggests I had the right idea but was overly precise in my predictions or should have tried to predict the effect over a longer period of time to avoid extreme but temporary outcomes:
In the two weeks since the Food and Drug Administration approved Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, the US’s average weekly vaccination rate has declined 38%.
Subsequent evidence suggests I had the right idea but was overly precise in my predictions or should have tried to predict the effect over a longer period of time to avoid extreme but temporary outcomes: