While it’s almost certainly impossible to answer this question to anywhere near the level of “smoking causes cancer”, it’s surely possible to get much closer than just comparing those two statistics you cited. One of the best attempts I’ve seen (and not just because it happens to support my position, I swear) is this study from the Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy.
It attempts to find a statistically rigourous correlation between gun ownership rates and murder/suicide rates—importantly, not JUST gun-related deaths, but murder/suicide rates in general. Its results were counterintuitive even to me—a supporter of gun rights: they found a statistically significant NEGATIVE correlation:
Nations with stringent anti-gun laws generally have substantially higher murder rates than those that do not. The study found that the nine European nations with the lowest rates of gun ownership (5,000 or fewer guns per 100,000 population) have a combined murder rate three times higher than that of the nine nations with the highest rates of gun ownership (at least 15,000 guns per 100,000 population).
For example, Norway has the highest rate of gun ownership in Western Europe, yet possesses the lowest murder rate. In contrast, Holland’s murder rate is nearly the worst, despite having the lowest gun ownership rate in Western Europe. Sweden and Denmark are two more examples of nations with high murder rates but few guns.
Now of course I understand that doesn’t really speak to causation, and the confounding factors are legion… but it seems like at least a step in the right direction toward rational analysis of the question.
Edit: Downvote explanation requested. Do you dispute the cited statistics, or are you just downvoting enemy soldiers?
My go-to for getting a sense of the empirical literature on some issue is to look for review articles that aggregate the results of multiple studies. I found this review, which suggests that there is a correlation between gun prevalence and homicide (and not just firearm-related homicide). The article is gated, sorry, but here’s the abstract:
This article reviews the most commonly cited, representative, empirical studies in the peer-reviewed literature that directly investigate the association of gun availability and homicide victimization. Individual-level studies (n=4) are reviewed that investigate the risks and benefits of owning a personal or household firearm. The research suggests that households with firearms are at higher risk for homicide, and there is no net beneficial effect of firearm ownership. No longitudinal cohort study seems to have investigated the association between a gun in the home and homicide. Two groups of ecological studies are reviewed, those comparing multiple countries and those focused solely on the United States. Results from the cross-sectional international studies (n=7) typically show that in high-income countries with more firearms, both men and women are at higher risk for homicide, particularly firearm homicide. Time series (n=10) and cross-sectional studies (n=9) of U.S. cities, states, and regions and for the United States as a whole, generally find a statistically significant gun prevalence–homicide association. None of the studies prove causation, but the available evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that increased gun prevalence increases the homicide rate.
And here’s the conclusion:
The available evidence is quite consistent. The few case control studies suggest that households with firearms are at higher risk for homicide, particularly firearm homicide. International cross-sectional studies of high-income countries find that in countries with more firearms, both men and women are at higher risk for homicide, particularly firearm homicide. This result is primarily due to the United States, which has the highest levels of household ownership of private firearms, the weakest gun control laws, and the highest homicide rates. Time series studies of particular cities and states, and for the United States as a whole, suggest a positive gun prevalence-homicide association. Finally, perhaps the strongest evidence comes from cross-sectional analyses of U.S. regions and states. Again, places with higher levels of gun ownership are places with higher homicide rates.
None of the studies can prove causation and none have completely eliminated the possibility that the association might be entirely due to reverse causation or omitted variables. But the available evidence is entirely inconsistent with the hypothesis that increased gun prevalence lowers the homicide rate. Instead, most studies, cross sectional or time series, international or domestic, are consistent with the hypothesis that higher levels of gun prevalence substantially increase the homicide rate.
I haven’t read through the study you linked, and it might be the case that the methodology in that study is significantly more reliable than that of other studies on this subject. If you are aware of an argument to that effect, I’d be interested to hear it.
it might be the case that the methodology in that study is significantly more reliable than that of other studies on this subject. If you are aware of an argument to that effect, I’d be interested to hear it.
As you pointed out, the study you’re citing is gated, so I can’t really evaluate it. However, based on the portions you quoted, I don’t see any reason to believe that either study is more or less methodologically sound than the other. However, I also don’t see any reason to believe that the two studies actually contradict each other, despite first appearances. The study I cited evaluates national-level crime stats, whereas yours evaluates household-level victimization stats. Both studies’ conclusions could easily be true simultaneously.
As noted in your citation:
None of the studies can prove causation and none have completely eliminated the possibility that the association might be entirely due to reverse causation
My intuition is that reverse causation is at play. That may sound like a cop-out, but keep in mind, I also argued reverse causation for my own citation, despite that being against my political interests, so I’m not just privileging my own position here. In the case of your citation, the intuitive case for reverse causation sounds even more convincing to me: people who live in high-crime neighborhoods are much more likely to decide to buy a firearm, in response to their local crime rates—I can attest to this from personal anecdotal experience.
Since prevalence of violent crime varies neighborhood-by-neighborhood, while gun control laws typically vary only nation-by-nation, there could very well be a positive correlation at the neighborhood (or household) level, while simultaneously having a negative correlation at the national level… especially in light of the fact that your study’s abstract concedes that its results are dominated by a single nation (the US).
The (informal) null hypothesis—that gun control laws have no significant causal effect, either positive or negative, on violent crime rates, would seem to explain both studies’ results equally well, whereas assuming the existence of (non-reverse) causation, either positive or negative, would require either one or the other of the studies’ conclusions to be wrong somehow. Parsimony would therefore seem to recommend this hypothesis.
One of the best attempts I’ve seen (and not just because it happens to support my position, I swear) is this study from the Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy.
What are some of the non-best attempts you’ve seen?
I agree that it is important to look at homicide rates rather than rates of gun deaths. (Relevant) arguments against gun restriction are basically that, first, it isn’t practical to significantly reduce the amount of gun ownership amongst the prone-to-impulsive-violence population, and, second, that if you did other deadly implements abound, especially ones that magnify strength disparities that likely correlate with being violence prone.
Looking at just gun death rates after restriction can argue against the first (given other variables controlled) but murder rates are the more important stat and could update both hypothesis one way or another.
This is interesting, but correlations of such generic variables without a clear causal story to explain them are a bit suspicious: there are so many confounding factors. How does gun possession reduce homicide from other causes for instance (Deterrent effect? Dubious since most homicides are heat-of-the-moment crimes of passion). How does gun ownership reduce suicides?
The original poster asked for evidence on a par with “smoking causes cancer”, and this Harvard study seems a lot like comparing smoking rates in a country against overall death rates in a country. (There might well be a negative correlation there too e.g. if countries with more smokers are generally more developed and so have lower death rates overall).
I concur. As I said, I find these results counterintuitive, despite the fact that they superficially seem to support my political position. They seem to support my position TOO WELL, and that makes me quite suspicious of them.
If I had to take a guess, I’d say that in reality, gun control laws have very little effect, in either direction, on crime rates, and that the causation behind this correlation, if there is any at all, runs in the opposite direction as would be implied by the naive reading: countries which have high crime rates tend to pass strict gun control laws as a reaction to those high crime rates, while countries with low crime rates never bother passing gun control laws, since they don’t see the need. In other words, I think it’s more likely that high crime rates cause strict gun control laws, rather than strict gun control laws causing high crime rates.
While it’s almost certainly impossible to answer this question to anywhere near the level of “smoking causes cancer”, it’s surely possible to get much closer than just comparing those two statistics you cited. One of the best attempts I’ve seen (and not just because it happens to support my position, I swear) is this study from the Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy.
It attempts to find a statistically rigourous correlation between gun ownership rates and murder/suicide rates—importantly, not JUST gun-related deaths, but murder/suicide rates in general. Its results were counterintuitive even to me—a supporter of gun rights: they found a statistically significant NEGATIVE correlation:
Now of course I understand that doesn’t really speak to causation, and the confounding factors are legion… but it seems like at least a step in the right direction toward rational analysis of the question.
Edit: Downvote explanation requested. Do you dispute the cited statistics, or are you just downvoting enemy soldiers?
My go-to for getting a sense of the empirical literature on some issue is to look for review articles that aggregate the results of multiple studies. I found this review, which suggests that there is a correlation between gun prevalence and homicide (and not just firearm-related homicide). The article is gated, sorry, but here’s the abstract:
And here’s the conclusion:
I haven’t read through the study you linked, and it might be the case that the methodology in that study is significantly more reliable than that of other studies on this subject. If you are aware of an argument to that effect, I’d be interested to hear it.
Thank you for your well-researched response.
As you pointed out, the study you’re citing is gated, so I can’t really evaluate it. However, based on the portions you quoted, I don’t see any reason to believe that either study is more or less methodologically sound than the other. However, I also don’t see any reason to believe that the two studies actually contradict each other, despite first appearances. The study I cited evaluates national-level crime stats, whereas yours evaluates household-level victimization stats. Both studies’ conclusions could easily be true simultaneously.
As noted in your citation:
My intuition is that reverse causation is at play. That may sound like a cop-out, but keep in mind, I also argued reverse causation for my own citation, despite that being against my political interests, so I’m not just privileging my own position here. In the case of your citation, the intuitive case for reverse causation sounds even more convincing to me: people who live in high-crime neighborhoods are much more likely to decide to buy a firearm, in response to their local crime rates—I can attest to this from personal anecdotal experience.
Since prevalence of violent crime varies neighborhood-by-neighborhood, while gun control laws typically vary only nation-by-nation, there could very well be a positive correlation at the neighborhood (or household) level, while simultaneously having a negative correlation at the national level… especially in light of the fact that your study’s abstract concedes that its results are dominated by a single nation (the US).
The (informal) null hypothesis—that gun control laws have no significant causal effect, either positive or negative, on violent crime rates, would seem to explain both studies’ results equally well, whereas assuming the existence of (non-reverse) causation, either positive or negative, would require either one or the other of the studies’ conclusions to be wrong somehow. Parsimony would therefore seem to recommend this hypothesis.
What are some of the non-best attempts you’ve seen?
Well, back of the napkin style comparisons like the one in the OP. And the press releases put out by the lobbying groups (on both sides of the issue).
I agree that it is important to look at homicide rates rather than rates of gun deaths. (Relevant) arguments against gun restriction are basically that, first, it isn’t practical to significantly reduce the amount of gun ownership amongst the prone-to-impulsive-violence population, and, second, that if you did other deadly implements abound, especially ones that magnify strength disparities that likely correlate with being violence prone.
Looking at just gun death rates after restriction can argue against the first (given other variables controlled) but murder rates are the more important stat and could update both hypothesis one way or another.
This is interesting, but correlations of such generic variables without a clear causal story to explain them are a bit suspicious: there are so many confounding factors. How does gun possession reduce homicide from other causes for instance (Deterrent effect? Dubious since most homicides are heat-of-the-moment crimes of passion). How does gun ownership reduce suicides?
The original poster asked for evidence on a par with “smoking causes cancer”, and this Harvard study seems a lot like comparing smoking rates in a country against overall death rates in a country. (There might well be a negative correlation there too e.g. if countries with more smokers are generally more developed and so have lower death rates overall).
I concur. As I said, I find these results counterintuitive, despite the fact that they superficially seem to support my political position. They seem to support my position TOO WELL, and that makes me quite suspicious of them.
If I had to take a guess, I’d say that in reality, gun control laws have very little effect, in either direction, on crime rates, and that the causation behind this correlation, if there is any at all, runs in the opposite direction as would be implied by the naive reading: countries which have high crime rates tend to pass strict gun control laws as a reaction to those high crime rates, while countries with low crime rates never bother passing gun control laws, since they don’t see the need. In other words, I think it’s more likely that high crime rates cause strict gun control laws, rather than strict gun control laws causing high crime rates.