Actually, this is backwards; by investing in companies that are worth more in worlds you like and worth less in worlds you don’t, you’re increasing variance
If you treat the “world you dislike” as one where you can still get about the same bang for you buck, yes.
But I think this wouldn’t be the case with a lot of good/bad visions of the future pairs.
Example:
BELIEF: You believe healthcare will advance past treating symptoms and move into epigenetically correcting the mechanisms that induce tissue degeneration.
a) You invest in this vision, it doesn’t come to pass. You die poor~ish and in horrible suffering at 70.
b) You invest in a company that would make money on the downside of this vision (e.g. palliative care focused company). The vision doesn’t come to pass. You die rich but still in less horrible but more prolonged suffering at 76 (since you can afford more vacations, better food and better doctors).
c) You invest in this vision, it does come to pass. You have the money to afford the new treatments as soon as they are out on the market, now at 70 you regain most functionality you had at 20 and can expect another 30-40 years of healthy life, you hope that future developments will extent this.
d) You invest in a company that would make money on the downside of this vision, it does come to pass. You die poor~ish and in horrible suffering at 80 (because you couldn’t afford the best treatment), with the added spite for the fact that other people get to live for much longer.
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To put it more simply, money has more utility-buying power in “good” world than in “bad” world, assuming the “good” is created by the market (and thus purchasable).
If you treat the “world you dislike” as one where you can still get about the same bang for you buck, yes.
But I think this wouldn’t be the case with a lot of good/bad visions of the future pairs.
Example:
BELIEF: You believe healthcare will advance past treating symptoms and move into epigenetically correcting the mechanisms that induce tissue degeneration.
a) You invest in this vision, it doesn’t come to pass. You die poor~ish and in horrible suffering at 70.
b) You invest in a company that would make money on the downside of this vision (e.g. palliative care focused company). The vision doesn’t come to pass. You die rich but still in less horrible but more prolonged suffering at 76 (since you can afford more vacations, better food and better doctors).
c) You invest in this vision, it does come to pass. You have the money to afford the new treatments as soon as they are out on the market, now at 70 you regain most functionality you had at 20 and can expect another 30-40 years of healthy life, you hope that future developments will extent this.
d) You invest in a company that would make money on the downside of this vision, it does come to pass. You die poor~ish and in horrible suffering at 80 (because you couldn’t afford the best treatment), with the added spite for the fact that other people get to live for much longer.
---
To put it more simply, money has more utility-buying power in “good” world than in “bad” world, assuming the “good” is created by the market (and thus purchasable).