TL;DR: Should I give up my highly risky and possibly even immoral career pursuit and go into charity work or not?
I’ve spent the last 6 years (from ages 24-30) trying to get into a career that’s incredibly competitive, with little to show for it (I’m purposefully not revealing what it is, so as not to conjure up any biases people may have about it). From what I’ve read, this is par for the course, and it could easily take a few more years to break in, but the base rate of success is about 1%. Of course, strategizing and training smarter than I have been should theoretically help, but sheer luck definitely does play a factor in this field. In most situations with odds like this (e.g. raffles), I wouldn’t bother betting so much as a dime. Should I not extend that conclusion to my career? (I of course assume that no one on here will reply with “just follow your passion no matter what!” ;-) )
One could argue that, unlike raffles, I’m not risking anything this situation: even if I totally fail, I will have still gained whatever skills and life experience from the attempt, aka even if I lose, I win. However, there are moral considerations:
In 80,000 hours parlance, I would consider this a relatively “unethical” field with middle-class income as the most realistic possibility, and since I don’t have any expertise in any other field, including anything related to charity or high-earning, there’s no reason not to select this profession for moral reasons except for the fact that, as with any business, it takes money to make money. And the idea of spending, say, $2000 for the chance of making a living at this profession versus another seems immoral to me. To translate that into a thought exercise, it’s as if someone is telling me that if I shoot two children in the head (i.e. a conservative estimate of the number of children that money could have saved had I sent it to a charity instead of investing in this risky career), I get to roll a 100-sided die to see if I luck out with my intended career (which will likely pay only just as much as any other middle class career, so there’s no reason to believe I’d be able to make up for that $2000 and save an even greater number of lives, especially since I already intend to give as much as I’m comfortable giving). Since I wouldn’t shoot the two children even for 100% chance of success, I obviously wouldn’t do it just for a 1% chance.
I could theoretically restrict myself to only cash outlays that have a pretty certain certain ROI or only engage in things that require no initial investment, and I know of many people who (as far as I know) succeeded at this business in that way, but I would imagine that that restriction hobbles my chances even more. Although the “even if I lose, I still win” thing would technically still be true, I would think I’d end up getting immensely frustrated with essentially shooting myself in the foot and feel like I was wasting my time and energy that could be more productively spent doing something else.
This seems rather convincing to me (so if you detect any errors in logic, please let me know!), so why am I posting it here? I suppose it’s because something’s holding me back. I can’t cut the cord. I’m still harboring that hope that “I’ll be one of the lucky ones.” I’m like that guy hunched over the craps table at two in the morning after gambling his life savings away saying “just one more roll, one more roll...” I feel like this clinging must be at least partially due to the American “you can do whatever you set your mind to” crap that’s been drilled into my subconscious my entire life. It must also be partially due to the fact that I’ve considered my field the “most importantest thing ever,” as untrue as that may be, ever since I was a kid, which is probably largely due to my father’s influence. There’s no other field or job I find interesting, except some charity stuff, but as I said, I have no expertise or training in that, would just be taking a job away from someone else, that’s a competitive field too, etc.
Hitting the 1% outcome would of course be the most awesome (or heck, even better, the 0.000001% jackpot), but the most realistic two possible choices are (effectively) more dead children or fewer dead children, in which case I’m gonna have to go with fewer dead children as being more awesome.
Thinking of that as the chosen course of action immediately made me feel a bit bitter or resentful—the feeling I get from, for instance, pondering living in a worse apartment so I can have more money to give to charity (a decision I was faced with a few months ago)--but a dead child is obviously less awesome than feelings of resentment. Ugh. This is starting to feel like a “the spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak” sort of thing.
EDIT: When I contemplate assuming that the morality case is settled and choosing to continue pursuing this 1% chance, the choice is between spending a few more years as a hopeless gambler and doing something with better odds. Honestly, I can’t pick which of these is more awesome. They both seem pretty sad to me (which is pretty ironic given the fact that I was feeling resentful over the idea of NOT continuing to be a gambler in the above paragraph). If it’s truly a toss-up, then theoretically I should go with quitting, since it is definitely the better alternative in the binary choice outlined in the previous paragraph.
Then again… if I do quit, I’m sure I would often wonder “what would have happened if...?” but surely guarding against regret isn’t a consideration to include in a rational decision-making process. I’m not haunted by a thought like this every time someone wins the lottery, for example. I feel like I could safely say “What would have happened? You would have wasted a few more years and then started the career you have now.” Even so, why can’t I let go? I guess that’s a textbook form of akrasia, but that really only gives it a label; not what I’m supposed to do about it. Does this seem like I should make a concerted effort to overcome my akrasia in this instance? (I know, I’m a total mess!!!)
“Would you prefer a 50% chance of gaining €10, one chance in a million off gaining €5 million, or a guaranteed €5? The standard position on Less Wrong is that the answer depends solely on the difference between cash and utility. If your utility scales less-than-linearly with money, you are risk averse and should choose the last option; if it scales more-than-linearly, you are risk-loving and should choose the second one. If we replaced €’s with utils in the example above, then it would simply be irrational to prefer one option over the others.”
It’s funny, because I was literally formulating this exact sort of scenario a few hours ago to describe my situation. Although I’m typically risk-averse, in this situation (perhaps because I value the field so highly), I’m willing to risk it. The idea that it’s not, in fact, illogical to do so (albeit immoral, for the reasons stated above, but if I were willing to go along with that conclusion, I’d basically end up living like Diogenes, and that’s just not going to happen), makes me willing to go ahead with it.
But please feel free to point out if and how my line of thinking has gone awry! :)
TL;DR: Should I give up my highly risky and possibly even immoral career pursuit and go into charity work or not?
I’ve spent the last 6 years (from ages 24-30) trying to get into a career that’s incredibly competitive, with little to show for it (I’m purposefully not revealing what it is, so as not to conjure up any biases people may have about it). From what I’ve read, this is par for the course, and it could easily take a few more years to break in, but the base rate of success is about 1%. Of course, strategizing and training smarter than I have been should theoretically help, but sheer luck definitely does play a factor in this field. In most situations with odds like this (e.g. raffles), I wouldn’t bother betting so much as a dime. Should I not extend that conclusion to my career? (I of course assume that no one on here will reply with “just follow your passion no matter what!” ;-) )
One could argue that, unlike raffles, I’m not risking anything this situation: even if I totally fail, I will have still gained whatever skills and life experience from the attempt, aka even if I lose, I win. However, there are moral considerations:
In 80,000 hours parlance, I would consider this a relatively “unethical” field with middle-class income as the most realistic possibility, and since I don’t have any expertise in any other field, including anything related to charity or high-earning, there’s no reason not to select this profession for moral reasons except for the fact that, as with any business, it takes money to make money. And the idea of spending, say, $2000 for the chance of making a living at this profession versus another seems immoral to me. To translate that into a thought exercise, it’s as if someone is telling me that if I shoot two children in the head (i.e. a conservative estimate of the number of children that money could have saved had I sent it to a charity instead of investing in this risky career), I get to roll a 100-sided die to see if I luck out with my intended career (which will likely pay only just as much as any other middle class career, so there’s no reason to believe I’d be able to make up for that $2000 and save an even greater number of lives, especially since I already intend to give as much as I’m comfortable giving). Since I wouldn’t shoot the two children even for 100% chance of success, I obviously wouldn’t do it just for a 1% chance.
I could theoretically restrict myself to only cash outlays that have a pretty certain certain ROI or only engage in things that require no initial investment, and I know of many people who (as far as I know) succeeded at this business in that way, but I would imagine that that restriction hobbles my chances even more. Although the “even if I lose, I still win” thing would technically still be true, I would think I’d end up getting immensely frustrated with essentially shooting myself in the foot and feel like I was wasting my time and energy that could be more productively spent doing something else.
This seems rather convincing to me (so if you detect any errors in logic, please let me know!), so why am I posting it here? I suppose it’s because something’s holding me back. I can’t cut the cord. I’m still harboring that hope that “I’ll be one of the lucky ones.” I’m like that guy hunched over the craps table at two in the morning after gambling his life savings away saying “just one more roll, one more roll...” I feel like this clinging must be at least partially due to the American “you can do whatever you set your mind to” crap that’s been drilled into my subconscious my entire life. It must also be partially due to the fact that I’ve considered my field the “most importantest thing ever,” as untrue as that may be, ever since I was a kid, which is probably largely due to my father’s influence. There’s no other field or job I find interesting, except some charity stuff, but as I said, I have no expertise or training in that, would just be taking a job away from someone else, that’s a competitive field too, etc.
Any advice/suggestions/comments/manifestos?
Thanks! :)
Which of the outlined outcomes would you consider “awesome” (as opposed to good, ethical, right, or virtuous)?
Hitting the 1% outcome would of course be the most awesome (or heck, even better, the 0.000001% jackpot), but the most realistic two possible choices are (effectively) more dead children or fewer dead children, in which case I’m gonna have to go with fewer dead children as being more awesome.
Thinking of that as the chosen course of action immediately made me feel a bit bitter or resentful—the feeling I get from, for instance, pondering living in a worse apartment so I can have more money to give to charity (a decision I was faced with a few months ago)--but a dead child is obviously less awesome than feelings of resentment. Ugh. This is starting to feel like a “the spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak” sort of thing.
EDIT: When I contemplate assuming that the morality case is settled and choosing to continue pursuing this 1% chance, the choice is between spending a few more years as a hopeless gambler and doing something with better odds. Honestly, I can’t pick which of these is more awesome. They both seem pretty sad to me (which is pretty ironic given the fact that I was feeling resentful over the idea of NOT continuing to be a gambler in the above paragraph). If it’s truly a toss-up, then theoretically I should go with quitting, since it is definitely the better alternative in the binary choice outlined in the previous paragraph.
Then again… if I do quit, I’m sure I would often wonder “what would have happened if...?” but surely guarding against regret isn’t a consideration to include in a rational decision-making process. I’m not haunted by a thought like this every time someone wins the lottery, for example. I feel like I could safely say “What would have happened? You would have wasted a few more years and then started the career you have now.” Even so, why can’t I let go? I guess that’s a textbook form of akrasia, but that really only gives it a label; not what I’m supposed to do about it. Does this seem like I should make a concerted effort to overcome my akrasia in this instance? (I know, I’m a total mess!!!)
Another EDIT!: It occurs to me that the ambivalence I’m suffering is actually due to this: http://lesswrong.com/lw/1cv/extreme_risks_when_not_to_use_expected_utility/
“Would you prefer a 50% chance of gaining €10, one chance in a million off gaining €5 million, or a guaranteed €5? The standard position on Less Wrong is that the answer depends solely on the difference between cash and utility. If your utility scales less-than-linearly with money, you are risk averse and should choose the last option; if it scales more-than-linearly, you are risk-loving and should choose the second one. If we replaced €’s with utils in the example above, then it would simply be irrational to prefer one option over the others.”
It’s funny, because I was literally formulating this exact sort of scenario a few hours ago to describe my situation. Although I’m typically risk-averse, in this situation (perhaps because I value the field so highly), I’m willing to risk it. The idea that it’s not, in fact, illogical to do so (albeit immoral, for the reasons stated above, but if I were willing to go along with that conclusion, I’d basically end up living like Diogenes, and that’s just not going to happen), makes me willing to go ahead with it.
But please feel free to point out if and how my line of thinking has gone awry! :)