There is another question in this context. What would increase (decrease) the probability of the S event? Clearly the absence of another Earth despite of the Kepler’s observations—increases it. What about Watson success? The fact we have no 10 Ghz processors?
Which are those relevant facts or events, which do influence? Can we say in a year or two—yes, since Wolframalpha manages it’s own code, a self optimizer is highly likely in the next 10 years?
I think, one cannot do those estimations without pondering these.
There is another question in this context. What would increase (decrease) the probability of the S event? Clearly the absence of another Earth despite of the Kepler’s observations—increases it. What about Watson success? The fact we have no 10 Ghz processors?
Which are those relevant facts or events, which do influence? Can we say in a year or two—yes, since Wolframalpha manages it’s own code, a self optimizer is highly likely in the next 10 years?
I think, one cannot do those estimations without pondering these.