I think the main question of whether or not people turn to stealing will be how the disaster in question affects the ability of the government (or other authorities authority) to stay intact and enforce its power, and thus prevent alternatives (i.e. bandits)
A siege is pretty bad, but usually there’s martial law in effect while it happens. A hurricane might make it hard for the federal government to enforce its power, but the local police and community leaders are still around. They might miss a few days, but they’ll be back around before things start looking like Mad Max.
But something like the Iraqi Civil War, where most of the government, military, and police were disbanded, lead to a lot of crime, both organized and unorganized.
I think the rule or thumb should be this: if a disaster would make the both the military and police ineffective for a long period of time, then there will be mass stealing. Other than a civil war, what could make this happen? Maybe an economic/supply chain collapse of unprecedented proportion, but nothing else comes to mind.
I think the main question of whether or not people turn to stealing will be how the disaster in question affects the ability of the government (or other authorities authority) to stay intact and enforce its power, and thus prevent alternatives (i.e. bandits)
A siege is pretty bad, but usually there’s martial law in effect while it happens. A hurricane might make it hard for the federal government to enforce its power, but the local police and community leaders are still around. They might miss a few days, but they’ll be back around before things start looking like Mad Max.
But something like the Iraqi Civil War, where most of the government, military, and police were disbanded, lead to a lot of crime, both organized and unorganized.
I think the rule or thumb should be this: if a disaster would make the both the military and police ineffective for a long period of time, then there will be mass stealing. Other than a civil war, what could make this happen? Maybe an economic/supply chain collapse of unprecedented proportion, but nothing else comes to mind.