Agreed that the specifics matter, but since it’s futile to make detailed predictions about those, I’m assuming the simplest case which is for the ageing process to be slowed overall, including in brain cells. (A longevity treatment which left your body healthy but your mind gone wouldn’t really deserve the name.) I’m wondering what you’re specifically thinking of, though. If, for example, cognitive decline occurred along the same progression that it currently does, but a constant factor more slowly, how would that impact the calculations?
Well, if ageing was slowed proportionally, and the world were roughly unchanged from the present condition, I’d expect large utility gains (in total subjective QoL) from prioritizing longer lives, with diminishing returns to this only in late 100s or possibly 1000s. But I think both assumptions are extremely unlikely.
Agreed that the specifics matter, but since it’s futile to make detailed predictions about those, I’m assuming the simplest case which is for the ageing process to be slowed overall, including in brain cells. (A longevity treatment which left your body healthy but your mind gone wouldn’t really deserve the name.) I’m wondering what you’re specifically thinking of, though. If, for example, cognitive decline occurred along the same progression that it currently does, but a constant factor more slowly, how would that impact the calculations?
Well, if ageing was slowed proportionally, and the world were roughly unchanged from the present condition, I’d expect large utility gains (in total subjective QoL) from prioritizing longer lives, with diminishing returns to this only in late 100s or possibly 1000s. But I think both assumptions are extremely unlikely.