I’ve written up several responses to this, but don’t think any of them succeeded in dissolving the question.
I think the confusion I notice could be summarized with “There isn’t really a null hypothesis, just a prior”. Longer: the alternative to “Soup costs $2.00 on Tuesdays” is not “Soup costs $2.00 this Tuesday”, it is “Soup costs $2.00 this Tuesday and some amount other Tuesdays”, which has strictly less explanatory power for the observation $soup_prices = {Tuesday --> 2.00;otherwise−−>RAND}.
I recommend reading/reviewing Solomonoff Induction and the computations done in the post for clarity.
(If anyone has the description of theory formation involving soup prices, I would have loved to cite that instead)
I cannot post a comment containing the sequence “dollar backslash a r r o w dollar”. I think any invalid Latex leads to a “Unrecognized LW server error”
I’ve written up several responses to this, but don’t think any of them succeeded in dissolving the question.
I think the confusion I notice could be summarized with “There isn’t really a null hypothesis, just a prior”. Longer: the alternative to “Soup costs $2.00 on Tuesdays” is not “Soup costs $2.00 this Tuesday”, it is “Soup costs $2.00 this Tuesday and some amount other Tuesdays”, which has strictly less explanatory power for the observation $soup_prices = {Tuesday --> 2.00;otherwise−−>RAND}.
I recommend reading/reviewing Solomonoff Induction and the computations done in the post for clarity.
(If anyone has the description of theory formation involving soup prices, I would have loved to cite that instead)
I cannot post a comment containing the sequence “dollar backslash a r r o w dollar”. I think any invalid Latex leads to a “Unrecognized LW server error”