Where A = “events occur” and B = “events are predicted”, you’re saying P(A and B) < P(A). Warrigal is saying it would be counterintuitive if P(A|B) < P(B).
Where A = “events occur” and B= “events are prophesied” and C = “the events prophesied come true” I am saying that when the events in A= the events in B, P(A|B) < P(B) or P(A) because A ^ B entails C.
Where A = “events occur” and B = “events are predicted”, you’re saying P(A and B) < P(A). Warrigal is saying it would be counterintuitive if P(A|B) < P(B).
Where A = “events occur” and B= “events are prophesied” and C = “the events prophesied come true” I am saying that when the events in A= the events in B, P(A|B) < P(B) or P(A) because A ^ B entails C.