And this doesn’t depend on prophecies in particular. Any claims made by the religion will do. For example, the same sort of argument would show that according to our subjective probabilities, all the various claims of a religion should be tightly intertwined. Suppose (admittedly an extremely difficult supposition) we discovered it to be a fact that 75 million years ago, an alien named Xeno brought billions of his fellow aliens to earth and killed them with hydrogen bombs. Our subjective probability that Scientology is a true religion would immediately jump (relatively) high. So one’s prior for the truth of Scientology can’t be anywhere near as low as one would think if one simply assigned an exponentially low probability based on the complexity of the religion. Likewise, for very similar reasons, komponisto’s claim elsewhere that Christianity is less likely to be true than that a statue would move its hand by quantum mechanical chance events, is simply ridiculous.
So one’s prior for the truth of Scientology can’t be anywhere near as low as one would think if one simply assigned an exponentially low probability based on the complexity of the religion.
If nobody had ever proposed Scientology, though, learning Xenu existed wouldn’t increase our probabilities for most other claims that happen to be Scientological. So it seems to me that our prior can be that low (to the extent that Scientological claims are naturally independent of each other), but our posterior conditioning on Scientology having been proposed can’t.
In proportion to the complexity of the claim given that humans exist, which is much lower (=> higher prior) than its complexity in a simple encoding, since Scientology is the sort of thing that a human would be likely to propose.
The prior for “Scientology is proposed” is higher than the simple complexity prior of the claim, to the (considerable) extent that Scientology is the sort of thing a human would make up.
You’ve got it a little backward, I think. The fact that someone makes a particular set of prophesies does not make those things more likely to occur. In fact, the chances of the whole thing happening… the events prophesied and the prophesies themselves is much lower than one or the other happening by themselves. This means that if some of the prophesies start coming true the probability the other prophesies come true goes up pretty fast. But predicted magic is even less likely than magic.
And this doesn’t depend on prophecies in particular. Any claims made by the religion will do. For example, the same sort of argument would show that according to our subjective probabilities, all the various claims of a religion should be tightly intertwined. Suppose (admittedly an extremely difficult supposition) we discovered it to be a fact that 75 million years ago, an alien named Xeno brought billions of his fellow aliens to earth and killed them with hydrogen bombs. Our subjective probability that Scientology is a true religion would immediately jump (relatively) high. So one’s prior for the truth of Scientology can’t be anywhere near as low as one would think if one simply assigned an exponentially low probability based on the complexity of the religion. Likewise, for very similar reasons, komponisto’s claim elsewhere that Christianity is less likely to be true than that a statue would move its hand by quantum mechanical chance events, is simply ridiculous.
If nobody had ever proposed Scientology, though, learning Xenu existed wouldn’t increase our probabilities for most other claims that happen to be Scientological. So it seems to me that our prior can be that low (to the extent that Scientological claims are naturally independent of each other), but our posterior conditioning on Scientology having been proposed can’t.
Right, because that “Scientology is proposed” has itself an extremely low prior, namely in proportion to the complexity of the claim.
In proportion to the complexity of the claim given that humans exist, which is much lower (=> higher prior) than its complexity in a simple encoding, since Scientology is the sort of thing that a human would be likely to propose.
The prior for “Scientology is proposed” is higher than the simple complexity prior of the claim, to the (considerable) extent that Scientology is the sort of thing a human would make up.
You’ve got it a little backward, I think. The fact that someone makes a particular set of prophesies does not make those things more likely to occur. In fact, the chances of the whole thing happening… the events prophesied and the prophesies themselves is much lower than one or the other happening by themselves. This means that if some of the prophesies start coming true the probability the other prophesies come true goes up pretty fast. But predicted magic is even less likely than magic.