Let’s say out of those 200 activities, (for simplicity) 199 would take humans 1 year, and one takes 100 years. If a researcher AI is only half as good as humans at some of the 199 tasks, but 100x better at the human-bottleneck task, then AI can do in 2 years what humans can do in 100.
Yes, but you’re assuming that human-driven AI R&D is very highly bottlenecked on a single, highly serial task, which is simply not the case. (If you disagree: which specific narrow activity are you referring to that constitutes the non-parallelizable bottleneck?)
Amdahl’s Law isn’t just a bit of math, it’s a bit of math coupled with long experience of how complex systems tend to decompose in practice.
Let’s say out of those 200 activities, (for simplicity) 199 would take humans 1 year, and one takes 100 years. If a researcher AI is only half as good as humans at some of the 199 tasks, but 100x better at the human-bottleneck task, then AI can do in 2 years what humans can do in 100.
Yes, but you’re assuming that human-driven AI R&D is very highly bottlenecked on a single, highly serial task, which is simply not the case. (If you disagree: which specific narrow activity are you referring to that constitutes the non-parallelizable bottleneck?)
Amdahl’s Law isn’t just a bit of math, it’s a bit of math coupled with long experience of how complex systems tend to decompose in practice.