I had some more specific thoughts on ML-specific bottlenecks that might be difficult to get through in terms of software speed up but the main point is as you say, just apply a combo of amdahls, hofstadter and unknown unknowns and then this seems a bit more like a contractor’s bid on a public contract. (They’re always way over budget and always take 2x the amount of time compared to the plan.)
I had some more specific thoughts on ML-specific bottlenecks that might be difficult to get through in terms of software speed up but the main point is as you say, just apply a combo of amdahls, hofstadter and unknown unknowns and then this seems a bit more like a contractor’s bid on a public contract. (They’re always way over budget and always take 2x the amount of time compared to the plan.)
Nicely put!