I haven’t. I expected they were making mistakes like this one, and haven’t seen anything indicating they generally make mistakes in this direction rather than the other.
It makes sense to adjust downward your belief that they are reliable, if you thought they were very reliable before. But this shouldn’t be enough to indicate they’re reliably getting it wrong in a particular direction.
If the ultimate goal is to compare knowledge of the Supreme Court to knowledge of the Simpsons, I would expect the surveys to reliably be wrong in the more sensational direction.
I haven’t. I expected they were making mistakes like this one, and haven’t seen anything indicating they generally make mistakes in this direction rather than the other.
It makes sense to adjust downward your belief that they are reliable, if you thought they were very reliable before. But this shouldn’t be enough to indicate they’re reliably getting it wrong in a particular direction.
If the ultimate goal is to compare knowledge of the Supreme Court to knowledge of the Simpsons, I would expect the surveys to reliably be wrong in the more sensational direction.