To anyone who has written publicly about how society needs to transform to survive ASI, or thinks that doing so is worthwhile, what is your theory of change?
The obvious one is to spray your ideas out into the world and hope that the right influential person takes them seriously at the right time. Milton Friedman describes this approach in the 1982 preface to Capitalism and Freedom:
Only a crisis—actual or perceived—produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes politically necessary.
But what if your theory is just noise that blocks out the better theories?[1] If this is worth worrying about, how would one assess that? Popularity could just be an indicator of storytelling ability, not how well a given person’s ideas will actually hold up.
Or is the main goal that we all debate together to work out the best idea? If that’s the case, should we stone anyone who defects by understating their uncertainty?
also, a country gets several shots at fixing its economy, but AI may be irretrievable. So trying several theories to see which one works might not be doable.
To anyone who has written publicly about how society needs to transform to survive ASI, or thinks that doing so is worthwhile, what is your theory of change?
The obvious one is to spray your ideas out into the world and hope that the right influential person takes them seriously at the right time. Milton Friedman describes this approach in the 1982 preface to Capitalism and Freedom:
But what if your theory is just noise that blocks out the better theories?[1] If this is worth worrying about, how would one assess that? Popularity could just be an indicator of storytelling ability, not how well a given person’s ideas will actually hold up.
Or is the main goal that we all debate together to work out the best idea? If that’s the case, should we stone anyone who defects by understating their uncertainty?
also, a country gets several shots at fixing its economy, but AI may be irretrievable. So trying several theories to see which one works might not be doable.