Yeah the obvious reason to predict more success on LW is that the post is implicitly pessimistic about AI companies’ ability to solve alignment. The reason I expected less success is that the post is making a simplified, arguably naive* argument where I could’ve made many caveats, or said a lot more about the real-world complexities of what I’m proposing, but I left those bits out because ultimately I didn’t think they were important enough. LW users (including me) tend to write comments pointing out those things I didn’t talk about.
In retrospect I suppose it’s unsurprising that this post was well-received on LW. It might just be risk-aversion combined with the fact that I’m not very good at predicting which posts LW users will like.
*in the colloquial sense of “not understanding how the world works”, not the mathematician’s sense
Yeah the obvious reason to predict more success on LW is that the post is implicitly pessimistic about AI companies’ ability to solve alignment. The reason I expected less success is that the post is making a simplified, arguably naive* argument where I could’ve made many caveats, or said a lot more about the real-world complexities of what I’m proposing, but I left those bits out because ultimately I didn’t think they were important enough. LW users (including me) tend to write comments pointing out those things I didn’t talk about.
In retrospect I suppose it’s unsurprising that this post was well-received on LW. It might just be risk-aversion combined with the fact that I’m not very good at predicting which posts LW users will like.
*in the colloquial sense of “not understanding how the world works”, not the mathematician’s sense