Since the outcome isn’t known, how can you be so sure that it is wrong either way?
How is this different than saying a particular stock price is “wrong”?
“Wrong” as in “less likely to match reality.” Not very much is certain, but that doesn’t mean we are forbidden from talking about certainty.
Sure, but the whole point of prediction markets is to capture knowledge from individuals that wouldn’t otherwise be available.
If everyone just bets what the polls say, then why have the market at all?
The response could just as easily be “why are the polls wrong?”