Make a list with powers of 1.2 from 1 to 10. Look at it to estimate some absolute number, assuming you can somehow estimate the correct order of magnitude. In a similar way, for probabilities, make a list from 0 to 1 with a logarithmic scale of ratios in some interesting range.

It does not help for the year Einstein first visited america, but I would really use anchors for that: 1933 as upper limit, 1880 as lower limit, and the remaining timespan would be guesswork for me. Looking at a biography, I think the answer is 1964+34-185+4*27 (to reduce the spoiler impact :p)

What about many artificial anchors?

Make a list with powers of 1.2 from 1 to 10. Look at it to estimate some absolute number, assuming you can somehow estimate the correct order of magnitude.

In a similar way, for probabilities, make a list from 0 to 1 with a logarithmic scale of ratios in some interesting range.

It does not help for the year Einstein first visited america, but I would really use anchors for that: 1933 as upper limit, 1880 as lower limit, and the remaining timespan would be guesswork for me.

Looking at a biography, I think the answer is 1964+34-185+4*27 (to reduce the spoiler impact :p)