Thermodynamics works fine under fully deterministic laws of physics. And with QM we don’t have satisfactory quantum gravity so I wouldn’t put much weight on implications of that.
Let’s consider the sleeping beauty thing without abstracting out randomness. A coin is tossed, it bounces several times, making it final orientation highly sensitive to the original orientation. It comes to rest, heads up, or tails up (we don’t know such things, ultimately because our head is a region of the universe smaller than the universe itself). For the given conditions it was physically impossible for it to have ended up the other side up. The betting is quite straightforward (dependent on whenever there’s 2 bets vs 1 bet).
edit: and the probabilities of the cylinder landing on either side or the edge, they are properties of real world all right—they’re the fraction of the hyper volume of possible initial phase space mapping to either final orientation, derivable without having to do statistical averaging.
Thermodynamics works fine under fully deterministic laws of physics. And with QM we don’t have satisfactory quantum gravity so I wouldn’t put much weight on implications of that.
Let’s consider the sleeping beauty thing without abstracting out randomness. A coin is tossed, it bounces several times, making it final orientation highly sensitive to the original orientation. It comes to rest, heads up, or tails up (we don’t know such things, ultimately because our head is a region of the universe smaller than the universe itself). For the given conditions it was physically impossible for it to have ended up the other side up. The betting is quite straightforward (dependent on whenever there’s 2 bets vs 1 bet).
edit: and the probabilities of the cylinder landing on either side or the edge, they are properties of real world all right—they’re the fraction of the hyper volume of possible initial phase space mapping to either final orientation, derivable without having to do statistical averaging.