This is the same kind of thing as the Black-Scholes model for options pricing. As a prediction with a finite time horizon approaches the probability of it updating to a known value converges. In finance people use this to price derivatives like options contracts, but the same principle should apply to any information.
I think you can probably put some numbers on the ideas in this post using roughly the same sort of analysis.
This is the same kind of thing as the Black-Scholes model for options pricing. As a prediction with a finite time horizon approaches the probability of it updating to a known value converges. In finance people use this to price derivatives like options contracts, but the same principle should apply to any information.
I think you can probably put some numbers on the ideas in this post using roughly the same sort of analysis.