We can’t do the experiment because the problem isn’t real. So appealing to Galileo and experiments is at best misleading. There’s no reality we’re testing here.
A _LOT_ hinges on how Omega is performing this impossible feat. I assert that two-boxers believe that past averages don’t apply to this instance—they don’t actually expect to get $1000, they expect $1001000. But we can’t be sure what they’re thinking, and we can’t be sure what Omega’s mechanism is, because we can’t do the experiment.
The thought experiment is far enough removed from reality that it doesn’t tell us much about … anything. When I first heard it a few decades ago, it seemed to be about free will. and even then it didn’t teach anything, as its assuming the answer is “no”. Now it’s morphed into … something something decision theory. And still doesn’t map to any reality, so still doesn’t have much truth-value.
We can’t do the experiment because the problem isn’t real. So appealing to Galileo and experiments is at best misleading. There’s no reality we’re testing here.
A _LOT_ hinges on how Omega is performing this impossible feat. I assert that two-boxers believe that past averages don’t apply to this instance—they don’t actually expect to get $1000, they expect $1001000. But we can’t be sure what they’re thinking, and we can’t be sure what Omega’s mechanism is, because we can’t do the experiment.
The thought experiment is far enough removed from reality that it doesn’t tell us much about … anything. When I first heard it a few decades ago, it seemed to be about free will. and even then it didn’t teach anything, as its assuming the answer is “no”. Now it’s morphed into … something something decision theory. And still doesn’t map to any reality, so still doesn’t have much truth-value.