Let me mention that Nate Silver at 538 did something quite similar to your Knox post, just today:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/15/a-bayesian-take-on-julian-assange/
By the way, I downvoted the parent. It is nothing personal, but debates like those induced by the Knox post are not what I’d like to see more of here.
Let me mention that Nate Silver at 538 did something quite similar to your Knox post, just today:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/15/a-bayesian-take-on-julian-assange/
By the way, I downvoted the parent. It is nothing personal, but debates like those induced by the Knox post are not what I’d like to see more of here.