However, as time goes by AI capabilities grow and so will public demonstrations of what’s possible with AI. This will cause people to revise upwards their beliefs about the impact/power of AI and AGI and drag far more actors into the game. I think that if the Whitehouse shared the views of DeepMind or OpenAI on AGI, they wouldn’t hesitate to start the equivalent of a second Manhattan project.
I suspect that one of the factors that will make coordinating to not build AGI harder is that the incentive to build AGI will become greater for a larger amount of people. Right now, there’s a large class of people who view AI as a benign technology, that will bring about large amounts of economic growth, and that it’s effects are going to be widespread and positive. I think this position is best captured by Andew Ng when he says “AI is the new electricity”. Likewise, the Whitehouse states “Artificial intelligence holds the promise of great benefits for American workers, with the potential to improve safety, increase productivity, and create new industries we can’t yet imagine.”.
However, as time goes by AI capabilities grow and so will public demonstrations of what’s possible with AI. This will cause people to revise upwards their beliefs about the impact/power of AI and AGI and drag far more actors into the game. I think that if the Whitehouse shared the views of DeepMind or OpenAI on AGI, they wouldn’t hesitate to start the equivalent of a second Manhattan project.